Intersecting Minds: Education, Business and Technology at the North Carolina State Jenkins Graduate School of Management

Tuesday Quick Hits

The big news over the last 24 hours surrounds the ongoing saga of automakers GM and Chrysler. This morning, the US gov’t rejected the strategic plans offered by the two automakers as insufficient to justify increased amounts of federal spending. However, the government will float more capital to both companies in order to prevent immediate bankruptcy.

Coupled with this news, the Obama administration asked for and received the resignation of GM CEO Rick Wagoner. He had been leading GM since 2000.

Stocks have reacted adversely to this turn of events, and the Dow was down nearly 300 points during Monday’s trading session. However, stocks are set to rebound slightly this morning.

Meanwhile, home prices continue to plunge. The S&P Case Shiller 20-city index reported a 2.8% monthly fall and a 19% annualized fall over last year.

And finally, air travel, another lagging indicator of economic activity, has taken a large hit. The number of passengers on all U.S. flights is expected to fall 7.8% in 2009, the largest drop since post-9/11/2001.


Wednesday Quick Hits

Mar 25
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A fascinating blog post on TechCrunch about the UK government implementing social media studies into elementary school curricula. Students will be taught about blogs, podcasting, and yes, even Twitter.

The stock market has rebounded nicely this morning coming off yesterday’s loss. Movement has been propelled by two reports showing improvement in durable goods orders as well as an increase in new housing starts.

Meanwhile, the news in California remains grim. Housing prices fell 41% year-over-year, dropping the median home price from $418,000 to $247,000. That’s an incredible drop in value and won’t help the state unwind from crushing debt and high unemployment.

The automobile market continues to evolve towards more fuel-efficient, hybrid models. Honda and Toyota are now looking at engaging in a price war for this emerging market of vehicles. Good news for consumers.

IBM is preparing to cut a large number of US-based service jobs and ship them over to India.


Tuesday Quick Hits

The Dow has opened up down just under 100 points after it rallied yesterday to the tune of nearly 500 points or slightly more than 6% yesterday.

GM and Chrysler are set to potentially receive another bailout from the government pending a review of their ability to stay solvent.

U.S. mortgage lending could increase sharply this year based on lowered interest rates from the Fed’s repurchase of mortgage-backed securities.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in Congressional testimony this morning that allowing AIG to fail would have posed “unacceptable risk” to the global financial system.

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article up this morning on how college towns have proven more recession resistant than most other cities.


Economy Timeline Refresher

Mar 23
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Having a discussion with a friend a few minutes ago, I realized that a lot has happened to the economy in the last 6 months. From Bear Stearns and Lehman collapsing to the fear of stagnation, to all the different plans and actions taken by the Bush and Obama administrations, there’s been a lot. Here’s a refresher for those interested:

September 12, 2008: All quiet on the Western front. Dow = 11,421

September 13, 2008, Lehman Brothers Declares Bankruptcy: The first semi-climatic event of what would turn into a series of crises. Lehman Brothers declares bankruptcy that morning citing over a $100B more debt than assets. At the time, Lehman was the largest bankruptcy in American history. The stock market closed down more than 500 points that day. Dow = 10,917

September 16, 2008, AIG Collapses: AIG’s stock price falls over 95% after their credit rating is downgraded. Analysts had compared the assets on their balance sheet to those on Lehman Brothers’ balance sheet. There they found the same mortgage-backed securities, but they were leveraged two times as much as Lehman’s. This led to a massive liquidity crisis which in turn led to the first of what would become tens of billions of dollars in bailouts from the federal government. Dow = 11,059

October 3, 2008, TARP becomes law: The Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) was the Bush administrations first response to the ballooning crisis. As mortgage-backed securities began to deline in value, major investment and commercial banks began reporting huge losses. The bill set aside $700B for the Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, to ensure these lending and investing institutions became insolvent. Unfortunately, almost no oversight was created for a bill that had been hastily created. The money that had been designated to relieve the frozen credit markets instead sat inside the banks. Dow = 10,325

November 4th, 2008, Barack Obama is elected President: Taking over from a lame-duck Bush administration, Obama promises swift and bold action on the economy. Dow = 9,625

December 12, 2008, GM runs out of cash and the Auto Bailout: GM and the other large, American automakers had been in trouble for years, after facing stiff foreign competition. The combined punch of soaring commodity prices in mid-2008 with the credit crisis of late-2008 brought GM, long the world’s #1 automaker, to the brink of bankruptcy. They requested $12B in aid from the federal government. Dow = 8,629

January 20th, 2009, Obama Inauguration: Obama begins outlining his first actions in office, including a general economic stimulus package, a foreclosure prevention plan and a recipe to cleanse the banks of the toxic mortgage-backed securities that were plaguing their balance sheets. Dow = 7,949

February 17th, 2009, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passes Congress: The stimulus package. Leveraging his high approval ratings and a desire for action, Obama pushes this $787B bill through in less than a month. The bill allocates $288B in tax cuts, $80.9B for infrastructure, $147B for health care, and the rest for education, energy and environment investments. Dow = 7,552

March 4th, 2009, Foreclosure Prevention Plan details are released: The Obama administration releases details on their $75B plan to alleviate a burgeoning foreclosure crisis. Millions of Americans are losing their homes, driven by crashing home prices, increasing job losses, and oversized loans they can’t afford. The plan offers assistance to banks to renegotiate mortgages around the securities. Dow = 6,875

March 9th, 2009, Dow hits bottom?: Dow = 6,574

March 23rd, 2009, Tim Geithner unveils $1T Bad Debt Relief Plan: Secretary Treasury Tim Geithner proposes a nuanced private-public partnership to leverage private hedge fund equity with $820B of government debt to buy up toxic assets from banks balance sheets. Dow = 7,775

I know there have been many other events, as well. If you’d like to see more on this list, let me know in comments and I’ll throw them up.


Monday Quick Hits

… And I’m back from an extended break. Last week we went through a barrage of midterms, quizzes and presentations, and following that lovely stretch, I took an extended vacation down to the beach this past weekend. But I’m back now, on track, and will be resuming a normal blogging schedule. So onto the quick hits:

The big news this morning in business/economics is the unveiling of Timothy Geithner’s “bad asset” plan to help repair the financial system. While the plan is complex, it’s received mixed reviews. Economist Brad DeLong has a glass half-full take, while Paul Krugman has a considerably more negative opinion.

The stock market has taken to the plan and is poised to build on the gains from the last two weeks this morning. Futures currently has the Dow opening about 140 points higher. At least one high-profile analyst thinks the bull market is here to stay.

Pockets of the economy continue to struggle. High-end jeweler Tiffany’s announced a 76% drop in fourth quarter net income this morning. Luxury goods probably will be among the last consumer items to rebound from the recession as the United States undergoes a fundamental shift in consumption habits.


Monday Morning Quick Hits

Merck and Schering-Plough announced a $41B merger this morning. While neither company has struggled tremendously financially, both have scaled back jobs.

Capital One said this morning that they would slash their dividend by 87% to 5 cents/share amidst rising credit card losses. All I can say is that you reap what you sow.

Publishing giant McClatchy will cut 1,600 jobs as the newspaper industry continues to get hammered. The Rocky Mountain News, Denver’s oldest print newspaper shut down two weeks ago, and the San Francisco Chronicle is slated to close by the end of spring if ad revenues don’t pick up.

The United States will push other world leaders to enact larger stimulus plans as the global economy sinks further into a recession.

Stocks are set to open lower this morning.


Weekend Dog Blogging

A couple random dogs from my travels in San Francisco this weekend.

SF Dog 1

Mai's Dog

I’ll be back to my regular blogging pace on Monday. Consider this an open thread in the meantime to leave your thoughts on the economy, business, technology, or how cute those dogs are.


Friday Morning Quick Hits

This morning’s news is all about jobs and how quickly they’re disappearing. Unemployment in the United States hit a 25-year high at 8.1% as the economy shed another 650,000+ jobs in February. In New York, 3,700 people showed to a job fair featuring 92 employers.

The economic environment has hit the tech sector hard. Apple’s shares have taken a hit this morning when analysts cut the estimated number of computers and iPhone the company would sell this quarter. Additionally, the company faces a large threat from unauthorized software distributors.

Wells Fargo will cut its dividend 85% in an effort to save costs.

Retailer Ann Taylor delivered more bad news this morning, posting a wider than expected loss.


Thursday Morning Quick Hits

What goes up… After rallying 150 points yesterday, the Dow has sunk back down over 200 points after China quashed rumors of additional stimulus money.

Bank stocks in particular have been hammered this morning. Citigroup’s stock price fell below $1 in trading this morning.

The American economy continues to shed jobs at a gruesome rate. Jobless claims topped 600,000 for the fifth straight week.

And the housing market continues to nose dive. Delinquencies hit a new record at 7.88% of all loans, and real estate market values kept up their decline.

All in all, another peachy keen morning for the global economy.


Wednesday Morning Quick Hits

Stocks have rallied this morning based on an announcement by China that they will be proffering an additional stimulus package. The U.S. alone can’t pull us out of this recession, and emerging economies such as China and India will have to play a major role.

General Electric has seen its shares fall below $6, their lowest level in almost 20 years.

The collapse of the real estate market has turned over 8 million mortgages upside down, meaning that the market value of the home is now less than the amount owed by the borrower.

Toyota and Honda, the pinnacles of Asian manufacturing efficiency, have been hammered by what is being called an “automotive recession.” Sales were down 40% and 38%, respectively, last quarter, and now both companies are asking for government aid.


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