Intersecting Minds: Education, Business and Technology at the North Carolina State Jenkins Graduate School of Management
School Update and COP15
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Because this blog is somewhat an encapsulation of my experience I should really share more about why the pace of my blogging has slowed dramatically. Simply put, school is kicking my butt. Due to the trajectory of the courses here, the vast majority of the work is backloaded towards the end of the semester. Here’s what my finals schedule looks like:
Strategic Risk Management: 15-page research paper due Nov 27th
Innovation Management: 30-page team business plan and 20-minute team presentation due December 7th
Advanced Corporate Finance: 4-hour closed book, closed note exam on December 11th
International Logistics Management: 15-page research paper due December 11th
Innovation Management: 15-page research paper due December 22nd
Needless to say, it’s a pretty brutal stretch through late November into December. A lot of research, a lot of writing, and a lot of studying for finance. All of which is to the good. I came here to learn, and the Finance program here is absolutely outstanding. But it’s also requiring a lot of extra time in the library to make sure I don’t fall behind. With trips coming up on Nov 19-22nd to Amsterdam and potentially in mid-December to Stockholm, the time is now to start knocking a lot of this work out. So unfortunately, I will not be able to post as much as I would like to, but I will still keep production up where I can.
One other piece of good news I’d like to share. I’ve been informally invited by CBS to attend “The Greatest Debate on Earth,” a meeting of the world’s top leaders at the COP15 Climate Change Conference. This will be an exceptional opportunity to hear many top officials from around the globe discuss climate change in a forum where the audience will be allowed to ask questions. Who knows, maybe I’ll get to ask a question. So I put the question out to you my readers: What should I ask and to whom?
Blog Absence
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Major apologies for the long absence on the blog. I’ve spent the last 72 hours furiously pumping out a 5,000 word paper for my Strategic Risk Management course. That’s a lot of writing. Needless to say, my brain and fingers have been occupied, but I should be back in full blogging force starting tomorrow. Enjoy your Sunday everyone!
The Weather
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It seems almost trite to write a blog post about the weather here in Copenhagen, but considering the circumstances, I think now might be the time. Today is November 4th, and it’s snowing outside right now. Hard. Unfortunately I don’t have my camera or I would snap a picture and upload it because it’s a winter wonderland out there right now.
The weather here is about much more than a single instance of snow though. It’s cold here now, and wet (whether rain or snow, but much more common to see the former than the latter). And it gets dark here early, really really early. Like 4:15 pm early.
I grew up in Portland, Oregon, so I’m used to long, cold, dark “days” that seem more like 24-hour nights than anything else, but after 10 years of living in the San Francisco Bay Area and North Carolina, this is a bit shocking even for me. Weather like this makes you just want to curl up in front of a fire and not go outside all day. I can only imagine what my friends from Australia and Brazil are going through in dealing with this.
On the bright side, it certainly does encourage studying. I’m typing this from the library here at CBS, where I’ve been working on my Strategic Risk Management paper, but it’s become very difficult not to look out the window at the snow. Meanwhile, I’m kicking myself because I forgot both my scarf and my hat. It’s going to be a cold ride back to the dorm later this afternoon. But then again, you haven’t really lived until you’ve been biking in 3 degree weather with a -5 wind chill in the dark at 5:00 pm 
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Congratulations NC State NAWMBA!
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I have to give a quick shout out of congrats to the NC State NAWMBA (National Association for Women’s MBA) team for taking first place in a national case competition. The team beat out Indiana and Rice in Anaheim, California. Click the link for more information, but this is a fantastic accomplishment for the women involved and for the school.
NC State was also just named one of the top 100 MBA programs in the world by Beyond Grey Pinstripes. Our program is definitely on the up, benefiting from our emphasis on technology and innovation. We feature a unique combination of concentrations ranging from Supply Chain Management to Biosciences to Innovation Management. We also have the traditional Finance and Marketing emphases as well.
From my experience, the program has prepared me well for working in a professional environment and for working cross-culturally here in Denmark. The workload has been rigorous and relevant, and there have also been strong networking opportunities through the faculty and the other students.
NC State has a strong MBA program, and today I feel pretty proud to be a part of it.
Oslo Recap
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What a weekend. Although our trip was short (<48 hours), we certainly made the most of it. On Friday afternoon, we left our dormitory and headed for Nordhavn and the boarding area. When we arrived, we realized we would be traveling in style. The boat was absolutely massive, a top notch cruise liner. After boarding around 3:30, we took a trip to the top deck, where I snapped some pictures of the CPH skyline before we left. Here’s my favorite:
Nice evening
You can see from the picture the other boat in the dock and how bit it was. And we were looking down on it from the top deck by a good ways. Following a quick tour of the boat, we headed to a brief informational meeting about the cruise liner from 4:00-5:00. Then we had a formal dinner featuring ad libitum wine and an amazing array of food (caviar, salad, steak, potatoes… you get the idea).
It was fantastic to get an opportunity to catch up with many people who I hadn’t seen since Introduction Week. After the initial burst of meeting a couple hundred people, it became very difficult to keep track of everyone, so this was a great chance to reconnect with many friends. Speaking of people, another highlight of the trip was meeting my roommates in the ship room. I shared a cabin with three other guys, one American, one German, and one Swiss. Talk about a good group of guys, we managed to have a great time and not get in the way of each other too much despite the small size of the room. Check this picture out:
Tight spaces
And yea, that’s a room for 4 people, not two. Those are fold out beds on either side of the picture frame. Whew. But it didn’t really matter too much because we didn’t spend hardly any time in the room. Between the boat tour, the dinner, and the disco party that followed we only had a few hours of sleep on Friday night.
The next morning, we woke up around 8:30 am and headed downstairs for an all you can eat breakfast buffet. The food definitely hit the spot, and we were ready to go tour Oslo. However, with several hundred young tourists headed out, I realized it would be virtually impossible to move quickly enough in the 6 hours given to us to really see much. So I grabbed one of my friends, Carolina (love that name), and said, “Look, the two of us should head out to the Sculpture Garden. It will be so much faster and easier to get around if we split up.” Needless to say, she agreed, and off we went.
Over the rest of the morning and afternoon, we managed the following:
- Walk to the Vigeland Sculpture Park
- Walk back through the downtown area admiring the amazing Oslo architecture and hilly countryside
- Stop for lunch at Bagel/Juice to spend $15 for a bagel sandwich
- See the changing of the guard at the Parliament Building
- Catch the Metro to the other side of the city
- Toured the Munch Museum, home of one of the most famous paintings in the world: The Scream
- Managed to get slightly lost on the way back, but found our way again
Needless to say, it was an action-packed 6 hours. Here are a few photo highlights:
Awesome travel companion
Favorite Munch: The Kiss
Second favorite Munch: The Murderer
Here are a few other impressions from Oslo:
- The Norwegians seemed a little more friendly to us than the Danes typically are. I’m not sure if this is because the Norwegians are generally a little less reserved than their counterparts, or if it was simply a function of Carolina and I being a traveling duo, instead of a huge group. But needless to say, people were very friendly to us, offering help and directions on the street and in Bagel/Juice.
- Oslo was a more unique city than i was expecting, and that was a good thing. The hills surrounding the downtown area were gorgeous. The architecture was superb, and the large parks and walking streets really made the city seem peaceful and welcoming. Unfortunately, there were no bike lanes though, but I can understand that to an extent considering how much more hilly Oslo is than Copenhagen.
- Six hours wasn’t nearly enough to see everything. Even though we had an action packed day, there was still soooo much more to see. If only I had my snowboard, I would have definitely planned a trip up to the mountains.
After our day touring the city, we headed back to the boat. As the sun was setting, myself and one of my roommates headed out to the hot tubs on the back of the boat to check the skyline before we headed out. This is what we were greeted with (and unfortunately the picture really doesn’t do it justice):
View from the hot tub
Needless to say, we had another great dinner and party on the way back to Copenhagen that night. All in all, it was a fantastic trip, and Oslo is definitely on the list of places I want to come back to the next time I’m in Europe.
Another Brief Hiatus: Oslo
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In a few hours, I will be departing for Oslo, Norway via a very large boat. CBS put together a cruise to Norway for all the exchange students. Roughly 700-800 of us will be leaving at 3:00 this afternoon for what should be a weekend full of parties and site-seeing. Here’s the itinerary
3:00 pm: Depart for Oslo
7:00 pm: Formal Dinner and Presentation
9:00 pm: Disco Party on the boat
9:30 am: Arrive in Oslo for tour and site-seeing
4:00 pm: Depart for Copenhagen
7:00 pm: Dinner
9:00 pm: Party #2 on the boat
9:30 am: Arrive in Copenhagen
Notice a trend there? It will be a quick trip, but we’re all excited to get out of Copenhagen for a weekend, and the sites should be incredible. Expect a full report on Sunday afternoon. Until then, look for Hal’s inaugural post. See you!
GDP Growth = Healthy Economy? Uhm No
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Earlier today, CNN Money released a new gallery report asking: “Are Things Really Getting Better?” Meanwhile, on their front page, the headline reads: “Economy Finally Back in Gear.”
So does the government’s recent announcement that GDP grew 3.5% last quarter, the economy’s first growth in a year, mean that we’re out of the recession? Um, not exactly. Lets put some additional analysis behind the “Getting Better” article. CNN broke economic indicators down into 7 segments. We’ll tackle them one by one:
1. GDP Growth: As I just mentioned, the economy grew by 3.5%, a strong figure when it stands on its own. But many observers believe this represents artificial growth fueled by government spending (i.e. stimulus dollars and the Cash for Clunkers). Now that many of these dollars have been spent, where does the economy go from here? In other words, are these number sustainable?
2. Job Growth: For the 21st straight month, the economy is expected to layoff jobs, to the tune of 175,000 more losses this month. Here is where things get interesting. Job growth is seen as a lagging indicator for an economic recovery. Many economists will tell you we should see a return to job growth in early 2010. But where will this job growth come from? Which sectors of the economy are set to deliver enough expansion to bring the unemployment rate from near double digits to calmer numbers?
3. Housing: This is probably the ugliest chart CNN has posted out of all of them. Home values are still declining, but at a slower rate. Unfortunately, there’s still a glut of supply out there. Many people are buying homes simply because the government is holding interest rates at all-time lows. It’s never been more affordable to buy a house. But once again, how long can this last? What happens when the government begins raising rates to combat fears of inflation? Will the improvement hold?
And that paragraph doesn’t take into account the expected Commercial Real Estate market bust. That bubble still needs to pop, and its effects on the economy or unforeseen.
4. Inflation: This is an area of concern further down the road due to the still present risk of deflation (if the economy hits the skids again) and the risks of hyperinflation, if the government doesn’t reign in low interest rates quickly enough.
5. Manufacturing: CNN describes growth in the manufacturing sector as “tepid.” The reason its tepid will be made obvious in my next point.
6. Consumer Spending: This is the traditional boon of the American economy, accounting for 70% of our total GDP. Unfortunately, Americans just aren’t spending the way they used to. The recession has seriously spooked people, and our country has been long overdue for a deleveraging process. Simply put, people are saving more and spending less. That’s why manufacturing growth is down. People just aren’t consuming as much as they used to, and as a result businesses are making fewer items for sale. This also ties back into the job growth picture. If companies aren’t manufacturing, jobs aren’t being created, money isn’t being spent, and the economy continues its downward spiral.
7. Ironic that CNN’s last point of analysis would be a stock market that’s “roaring back.” Smart analysts out there understand that the surprisingly strong bull run over the last six months has been driven by two primary forces. First, we’ve seen a correction off the absurd lows of Q1 2009. Second, we’ve seen investors speculating that global government stimulus would be enough to drive us out of the economic doldrums. Meanwhile, several multinational companies that compose the DJIA and S&P 500 indexes have been reporting strong earnings reports over the last 2 months, serving to fuel the run up even more.
However, I would argue that the stock market at its current point is overvalued. See Tyler Durden’s analysis of market correlations over at Zero Hedge for why fundamental market indicators point to retreat off the bull run we’ve witnessed through the spring, summer and into fall.
In short, our economy is still in grave peril. Real manufacturing growth is tepid at best. Job losses are still the norm. Worst of all, the financial institutions are back to operating the way they were two years ago. Their balance sheets are still saddled with toxic assets. And the national debt continues to explode. Many economists are now saying that this could be a “jobless” recover (which isn’t really much of a recovery), with the most pessimistic saying we could be looking at a decade or more of fluctuation between recession and rebound (think of Japan’s lost decade).
Buckle up folks. This is going to be a hell of a ride.
Economic Impact of Oil and Coal: Not Good
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Those damn scientists are at it again. One of the major arguments against implementation of energy reform and climate change legislation is that putting together such a system would impose a huge drain on our economy. Guess what? That drain is already happening.
The National Research Council recently released a report estimating the hidden costs of our petroleum and coal-based energy system. The NRC puts the quantifiable costs at $120B. And yes, that’s a B, not an M, as in $120 billion. These are just the measurable costs. According to the report
($120B is a) number that reflects primarily health damages from air pollution associated with electricity generation and motor vehicle transportation. The figure does not include damages from climate change, harm to ecosystems, effects of some air pollutants such as mercury, and risks to national security, which the report examines but does not monetize.
I’m not qualified to get into a deep policy discussion around the merits of a cap-and-trade system vs. a straight carbon tax. Nor am I ready to dig into other policies and incentive systems that could mitigate the problem, but it’s clear that the economic argument against action isn’t nearly as strong as it once was. Will effective energy reform legislation cost a lot of money? Yes. But according to this report we’re already paying a good chunk of that in hidden costs that show up in our health care bills right now. And that doesn’t even include the unquantifiable damage done to the environment and our addiction to Middle Eastern oil.
The 5 Guiding Principles of CBS
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I just ran across this video on the Facebook profile of one of my friends, and I thought it was worth sharing:
I recognize no less than four of those exchange students. Carolina (who starts the video), Edoardo, Grace, and Edward. Nice work guys.
